Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MERC +145 LIU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +8 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -2.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -2.7 (+10.7) | 134.9 (+39.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LIU -2.4 (+10.4) | 133.3 (+40.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LIU -3.0 (+11.0) | 133.5 (+40.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -2.7 (+10.7) | 134.7 (+39.3) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | LIU 79 – 70 MERC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIU 60 – 58 MERC |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MERC 85 – 80 LIU |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LIU 72 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-14 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#286) | -2.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#325) | -0.03 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#320) | -0.16 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#301) | 0.520 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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