Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -218 MERC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -7.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -6.0 (+3.0) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LIU -6.9 (+2.1) | 134.4 (+14.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LIU -6.2 (+2.8) | 135.1 (+13.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -5.7 (+3.3) | 135.0 (+14.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MERC 91 – 83 LIU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIU 60 – 58 MERC |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MERC 85 – 80 LIU |
| Jan 20, 2025 | LIU 72 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-9 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#211) | -7.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#174) | -1.49 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#188) | -1.84 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#122) | 0.459 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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