Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -360 MERC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -8.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -5.8 (+3.2) | 128.2 (+6.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LIU -6.0 (+3.0) | 129.0 (+6.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LIU -6.6 (+2.4) | 128.0 (+7.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -7.1 (+1.9) | 127.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | LIU 79 – 70 MERC |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MERC 91 – 83 LIU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIU 60 – 58 MERC |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MERC 85 – 80 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#290) | -12.9 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#271) | -1.75 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#278) | -2.41 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#262) | 0.415 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 25.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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