Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -118 M-OH -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +14 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -2.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -1.5 (-12.5) | 157.9 (+2.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -2.8 (-11.2) | 157.2 (+2.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -2.9 (-11.1) | 156.9 (+3.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -2.4 (-11.6) | 155.9 (+4.1) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
| Mar 9, 2023 | TOL 91 – 75 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 18-0 |
| Home | 11-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-9 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#165) | 6.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#145) | 3.44 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#134) | 4.48 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#126) | 0.550 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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