Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
| Money | TOL -700 M-OH +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -11.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -12.1 (-8.1) | 153.3 (-21.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.6 (-4.6) | 152.4 (-20.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -9.6 (-5.6) | 153.4 (-21.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -10.1 (-6.1) | 154.6 (-22.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Mar 9, 2023 | TOL 91 – 75 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#148) | -5.3 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#125) | -0.89 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | -1.76 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#140) | 0.450 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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