Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH -200 TOL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +12 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | M-OH -5.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -4.2 (+7.8) | 156.9 (+15.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -4.2 (+7.8) | 154.2 (+17.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -4.2 (+7.8) | 156.7 (+15.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -4.0 (+8.0) | 159.1 (+12.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
| Mar 9, 2023 | TOL 91 – 75 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 81.1 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#157) | -2.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#89) | 0.64 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#105) | 0.18 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#101) | 0.542 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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