Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH +110 TOL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +34 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -1.5 (-32.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.2 (-31.8) | 144.8 (+15.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -0.3 (-33.7) | 146.5 (+13.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -0.0 (-34.0) | 146.1 (+13.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.6 (-33.4) | 146.8 (+13.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
| Mar 9, 2023 | TOL 91 – 75 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#223) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#216) | 0.60 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#240) | 0.50 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#208) | 0.541 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.