Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1100 M-OH +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +16 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -13.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -14.9 (+1.1) | 156.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.3 (+3.7) | 158.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -13.2 (+2.8) | 156.5 (+9.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -12.0 (+4.0) | 158.1 (+7.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-9 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#83) | -6.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#72) | -1.48 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#83) | -1.69 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#55) | 0.434 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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