Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB -166 UCR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -2.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -1.8 (-0.8) | 145.7 (-12.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CSUB -1.2 (-0.2) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | CSUB -1.5 (-0.5) | 146.0 (-13.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -1.1 (-0.1) | 145.9 (-12.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCR 65 – 63 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 5-15 |
| Home | 6-11 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L15 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#304) | -8.1 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#246) | -0.33 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#267) | -0.39 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#286) | 0.511 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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