UC Riverside
Highlanders
83
–
78
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Big West
Cal State Bakersfield
Roadrunners
Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -138 CSUB +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.5 (+3.5) | 132.5 (+28.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.7 (+2.3) | 131.6 (+29.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.2 (+3.8) | 133.3 (+27.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.2 (+3.8) | 133.2 (+27.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCR 65 – 63 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#212) | -3.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#214) | -0.73 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#201) | -0.82 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#207) | 0.451 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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