Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -290 CSUB +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -8.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -7.4 (-2.4) | 146.9 (-13.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -6.9 (-1.9) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -7.6 (-2.6) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -7.4 (-2.4) | 148.9 (-15.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCR 65 – 63 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#162) | -5.2 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#82) | -0.76 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#113) | -0.90 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#80) | 0.447 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 38.4% |
Game Analysis
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