Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -200 CSUB +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -3.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.9 (+0.1) | 131.7 (-3.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -3.7 (-1.7) | 133.3 (-5.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -2.1 (-0.1) | 133.8 (-5.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.7 (+0.3) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#256) | -5.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#275) | -0.90 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#266) | -1.11 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#277) | 0.436 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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