Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -298 CSUB +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +28 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -6.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -5.4 (+22.6) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -4.7 (+23.3) | 146.2 (+11.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.2 (+22.8) | 147.6 (+10.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -4.9 (+23.1) | 147.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCR 83 – 79 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCR 65 – 63 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 2-18 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-11 |
| Away | 3-15 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#288) | -11.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#280) | -1.49 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#257) | -2.23 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#258) | 0.404 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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