Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -110 UCR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUB -0.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -0.8 (-4.8) | 145.5 (+16.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -0.2 (-4.2) | 143.7 (+18.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -0.3 (-4.3) | 148.4 (+13.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -0.5 (-4.5) | 147.3 (+14.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UCR 93 – 65 CSUB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUB 67 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCR 69 – 64 CSUB |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UCR 83 – 78 CSUB |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UCR 65 – 63 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#217) | 0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#202) | 1.04 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#198) | 0.72 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#195) | 0.555 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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