Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · January 9, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -22.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money ILL -6500 / RUTG +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual ILL +26 136 Won
Massey ILL -26.9 (-0.9)
Massey Totals 148.7 (-12.7)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -20.1 (+5.9) 149.4 (-13.4) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -20.7 (+5.3) 145.6 (-9.6) 91%
Baseline ML ILL -23.1 (+2.9) 145.8 (-9.8) 91%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -23.7 (+2.3) 145.5 (-9.5) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 6, 2025 RUTG 8273 ILL
Jan 21, 2024 ILL 8663 RUTG
Dec 2, 2023 ILL 7658 RUTG
Feb 11, 2023 ILL 6960 RUTG
Feb 17, 2022 RUTG 7059 ILL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL RUTG
Overall 28-9 14-20
Conference 15-5 6-14
Home 14-3 10-7
Away 8-2 2-9
Neutral 6-4 2-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 83.2 70.5
Avg Pts Against 68.8 75.3
Massey 22.0 (#8) -1.2 (#187)
Bradley-Terry 3.45 (#14) 0.19 (#156)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.99 (#14) -0.04 (#171)
RPI 0.627 (#23) 0.496 (#178)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL RUTG
FG% 47.8% 40.6%
3PT% 34.7% 32.0%
REB / G 42.4 35.7
OREB / G 13.4 13.0
AST / TO 1.49 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.1% 46.2%
TOV% 14.5% 17.0%
ORB% 39.9% 35.2%
FT Rate 28.8% 30.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 12.6% 18.4%
DRB% 72.9% 65.5%
Opp FT Rate 14.2% 20.0%

Game Analysis

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