Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -800 RUTG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -14.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -13.4 (+9.6) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -13.0 (+10.0) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.7 (+11.3) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.2 (+10.8) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | ILL 81 – 55 RUTG |
| Feb 6, 2025 | RUTG 82 – 73 ILL |
| Dec 2, 2023 | ILL 76 – 58 RUTG |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 RUTG |
| Feb 17, 2022 | RUTG 70 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#11) | 6.0 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#27) | 1.29 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#21) | 1.76 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#26) | 0.555 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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