Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | RUTG +210 ILL -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RUTG +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -9.7 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.9 (+15.9) | 162.3 (-7.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.7 (+13.7) | 156.6 (-1.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.6 (+14.6) | 158.8 (-3.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.6 (+14.6) | 161.5 (-6.5) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | ILL 81 – 55 RUTG |
| Jan 21, 2024 | ILL 86 – 63 RUTG |
| Dec 2, 2023 | ILL 76 – 58 RUTG |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ILL 69 – 60 RUTG |
| Feb 17, 2022 | RUTG 70 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#75) | 20.8 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#76) | 2.57 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#64) | 3.54 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#83) | 0.595 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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