Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -250 RUTG +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -2.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.9 (+7.1) | 134.8 (-5.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -4.4 (+4.6) | 132.6 (-3.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.0 (+6.0) | 131.4 (-2.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.5 (+6.5) | 132.9 (-3.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | ILL 81 – 55 RUTG |
| Feb 6, 2025 | RUTG 82 – 73 ILL |
| Jan 21, 2024 | ILL 86 – 63 RUTG |
| Dec 2, 2023 | ILL 76 – 58 RUTG |
| Feb 17, 2022 | RUTG 70 – 59 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 61.1 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#21) | 15.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#30) | 1.78 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#35) | 2.28 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#56) | 0.567 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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