Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | USM -155 TXST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USM -11.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -9.0 (+1.0) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.3 (+2.7) | 140.6 (+9.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -9.3 (+0.7) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -9.5 (+0.5) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TXST 75 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#184) | -9.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#175) | -0.76 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#167) | -1.13 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#134) | 0.435 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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