Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -142 USM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USM -1.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.7 (+8.7) | 143.2 (-2.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.9 (+7.9) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.0 (+9.0) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.0 (+9.0) | 142.0 (-1.0) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TXST 75 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#287) | -3.1 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#237) | -0.18 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#254) | -0.29 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#283) | 0.522 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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