Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -130 USM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -1.5 (-2.5) | 140.9 (+17.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -0.5 (-3.5) | 140.5 (+17.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.2 (-2.8) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.4 (-2.6) | 140.6 (+17.4) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TXST 75 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#257) | -3.9 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#179) | -0.26 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#207) | -0.49 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#197) | 0.501 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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