Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USM +145 TXST -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -4.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.4 (+7.4) | 139.9 (+40.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.1 (+7.1) | 141.5 (+38.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.4 (+7.4) | 142.5 (+37.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.6 (+7.6) | 143.2 (+36.8) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TXST 75 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#298) | 0.4 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#289) | 0.14 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#291) | -0.27 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#328) | 0.515 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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