Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -500 USM +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -11.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -9.4 (-6.4) | 146.9 (+20.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -7.9 (-4.9) | 147.1 (+19.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -8.6 (-5.6) | 148.4 (+18.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -8.3 (-5.3) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TXST 75 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#163) | -7.3 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -1.10 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#203) | -1.54 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#177) | 0.427 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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