Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USM -154 TXST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +16 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -0.8 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.3 (-15.7) | 135.7 (-1.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.4 (-15.6) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.9 (-15.1) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.9 (-15.1) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#237) | -3.0 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#206) | -0.37 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#216) | -0.35 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#194) | 0.500 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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