Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | KC +390 NDSU -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +24 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -8.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -8.7 (-15.3) | 145.1 (+24.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -9.5 (-14.5) | 145.4 (+24.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -8.0 (-16.0) | 141.4 (+28.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -7.9 (-16.1) | 143.9 (+26.1) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
| Jan 12, 2024 | NDSU 92 – 91 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 14-2 |
| Home | 3-11 | 13-1 |
| Away | 1-15 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L15 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#317) | 1.8 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#339) | 0.34 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.00 (#334) | 0.55 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#344) | 0.509 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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