Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | KC -138 NDSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +1 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | KC -3.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+34.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -2.0 (-3.0) | 143.0 (+40.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -2.3 (-3.3) | 140.3 (+42.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -2.3 (-3.3) | 142.9 (+40.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -2.3 (-3.3) | 143.4 (+39.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#257) | -4.3 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#288) | -0.74 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#271) | -0.94 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#276) | 0.468 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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