Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -188 KC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -3.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -2.0 (+2.0) | 142.5 (+17.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.4 (+1.6) | 143.3 (+16.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -2.2 (+1.8) | 143.2 (+16.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -1.6 (+2.4) | 144.4 (+15.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Jan 12, 2024 | NDSU 92 – 91 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#264) | -5.2 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#253) | -1.32 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#279) | -1.37 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#241) | 0.430 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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