Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -4000 KC +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +36 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -22.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -19.4 (+16.6) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -18.2 (+17.8) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -17.2 (+18.8) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -19.2 (+16.8) | 145.4 (+8.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
| Jan 12, 2024 | NDSU 92 – 91 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 1-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 3-11 |
| Away | 10-5 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 84.8 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | -16.1 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#105) | -3.46 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#109) | -3.97 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#89) | 0.367 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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