Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -380 DEN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +8 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -7.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.5 (+1.5) | 162.0 (+4.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.7 (+3.3) | 160.8 (+5.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -4.2 (+3.8) | 159.8 (+6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.5 (+3.5) | 158.5 (+7.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SDST 97 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#163) | -3.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#237) | -0.25 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#210) | -0.88 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.487 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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