Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +270 SDST -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -10.7 (+26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.6 (+24.6) | 147.8 (-7.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -9.5 (+25.5) | 144.6 (-4.6) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.9 (+24.9) | 146.7 (-6.7) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.3 (+25.3) | 147.9 (-7.9) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SDST 97 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#314) | 4.7 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#322) | 0.44 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#336) | 0.55 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#330) | 0.530 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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