Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -400 DEN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +27 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -5.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -5.6 (+21.4) | 158.5 (+8.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -5.6 (+21.4) | 156.7 (+10.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.1 (+21.9) | 159.1 (+7.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -4.8 (+22.2) | 158.8 (+8.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#168) | -2.7 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#204) | -0.80 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#196) | -0.95 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#189) | 0.464 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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