Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -2000 DEN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +21 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -16.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -12.7 (+8.3) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -12.8 (+8.2) | 151.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -12.8 (+8.2) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -13.4 (+7.6) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SDST 97 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#105) | -8.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#139) | -1.68 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#122) | -3.25 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#137) | 0.374 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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