Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | DEN +114 SDST -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -0.4 (+18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -0.9 (+17.1) | 156.6 (-16.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.0 (+19.0) | 153.0 (-13.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -0.8 (+17.2) | 154.2 (-14.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -0.6 (+17.4) | 155.4 (-15.4) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SDST 76 – 68 DEN |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SDST 97 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#231) | -0.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#245) | -1.07 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#246) | -0.91 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#244) | 0.443 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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