Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -500 DEN +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -6.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.9 (+1.1) | 151.2 (-7.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.2 (+1.8) | 150.8 (-6.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -6.6 (+1.4) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -6.6 (+1.4) | 149.4 (-5.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | DEN 79 – 61 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SDST 87 – 79 DEN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | DEN 78 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SDST 91 – 70 DEN |
| Feb 23, 2024 | SDST 97 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 82.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | -4.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#164) | -0.84 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#157) | -1.09 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#130) | 0.465 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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