Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USD -198 PEPP +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USD -5.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -4.1 (+15.9) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -3.7 (+16.3) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -4.5 (+15.5) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -3.9 (+16.1) | 140.3 (+5.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
| Jan 28, 2024 | USD 69 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-8 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#228) | -5.8 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#219) | -1.36 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#222) | -1.47 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#236) | 0.431 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 60.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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