Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -425 USD +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -8.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -8.2 (-1.2) | 148.4 (+20.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -6.5 (+0.5) | 149.9 (+19.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -8.3 (-1.3) | 150.7 (+18.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -7.0 (+0.0) | 149.5 (+19.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
| Jan 28, 2024 | USD 69 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-13 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#220) | -8.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#283) | -2.72 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#272) | -2.92 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#284) | 0.390 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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