Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +130 USD -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +4 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -0.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -0.8 (-3.2) | 143.1 (+36.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -0.3 (-3.7) | 145.4 (+34.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -1.2 (-2.8) | 145.6 (+34.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -1.2 (-2.8) | 144.4 (+35.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
| Jan 28, 2024 | USD 69 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-10 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#270) | -3.2 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#291) | -0.59 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#272) | -0.74 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#307) | 0.447 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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