Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USD +130 PEPP -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +5 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -2.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-43.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -2.8 (+7.8) | 147.4 (-38.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -1.7 (+6.7) | 146.0 (-37.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -3.6 (+8.6) | 149.0 (-40.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -4.1 (+9.1) | 148.9 (-39.9) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Jan 28, 2024 | USD 69 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#268) | -2.4 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#167) | -0.79 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#184) | -0.75 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#191) | 0.463 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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