Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +100 APP -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +2 | 102 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -1.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.9 (-0.1) | 139.0 (-37.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.4 (+0.4) | 139.2 (-37.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.5 (-0.5) | 136.7 (-34.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.2 (+0.2) | 137.3 (-35.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | APP 76 – 68 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#309) | -4.0 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#271) | -0.61 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#264) | -1.06 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#291) | 0.461 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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