Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +145 APP -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.2 (+8.2) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.4 (+7.4) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.5 (+7.5) | 138.7 (-3.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.3 (+8.3) | 137.4 (-2.4) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | APP 76 – 68 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#272) | 1.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#261) | 0.33 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#279) | 0.47 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#261) | 0.539 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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