Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APP -900 GAST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | APP -12.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -9.7 (-5.7) | 137.9 (+18.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -11.6 (-7.6) | 139.3 (+16.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.1 (-6.1) | 136.3 (+19.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -10.9 (-6.9) | 137.1 (+18.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | APP 76 – 68 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#151) | -8.9 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#171) | -1.30 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#155) | -1.83 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#130) | 0.452 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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