Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | APP -410 GAST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -15.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.5 (-17.5) | 133.6 (-0.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -9.9 (-16.9) | 136.7 (-3.7) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -11.6 (-18.6) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -11.0 (-18.0) | 133.9 (-0.9) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | APP 76 – 68 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#222) | -14.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#195) | -2.78 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#212) | -3.60 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#201) | 0.361 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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