Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | APP -500 GAST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | APP -11.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -9.3 (-1.3) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.0 (-2.0) | 139.6 (+4.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -10.8 (-2.8) | 141.7 (+2.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -10.1 (-2.1) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#79) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | -0.09 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#93) | -0.15 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#88) | 0.486 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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