Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +275 APP -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -6.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.8 (-3.2) | 143.1 (+8.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.8 (-4.2) | 148.0 (+4.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -6.2 (-3.8) | 150.8 (+1.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -6.8 (-3.2) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | APP 76 – 68 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#215) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#258) | 1.49 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#254) | 1.55 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#254) | 0.562 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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