Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FGCU -162 APSU +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | FGCU -2.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -1.6 (-12.6) | 152.1 (+0.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.6 (-13.6) | 149.8 (+3.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -1.9 (-12.9) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -1.0 (-12.0) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APSU 83 – 62 FGCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APSU 73 – 60 FGCU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FGCU 73 – 67 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | FGCU 89 – 71 APSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | APSU 61 – 59 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#186) | 0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#240) | -0.09 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#193) | -0.48 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.501 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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