Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +188 FGCU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -6.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -7.3 (+9.3) | 139.8 (-19.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FGCU -7.5 (+9.5) | 138.6 (-18.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | FGCU -6.7 (+8.7) | 141.6 (-21.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -6.7 (+8.7) | 142.5 (-22.5) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APSU 83 – 62 FGCU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | APSU 82 – 71 FGCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APSU 73 – 60 FGCU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FGCU 73 – 67 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | FGCU 89 – 71 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#290) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#307) | 2.20 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#295) | 2.74 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#254) | 0.604 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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