Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -600 APSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -12.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -10.2 (+7.8) | 136.4 (+23.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -9.8 (+8.2) | 137.8 (+22.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -10.4 (+7.6) | 137.3 (+22.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -10.4 (+7.6) | 137.0 (+23.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APSU 83 – 62 FGCU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | APSU 82 – 71 FGCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APSU 73 – 60 FGCU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FGCU 73 – 67 APSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | APSU 61 – 59 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#188) | -9.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | -1.59 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#151) | -2.01 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#165) | 0.426 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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