Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -278 FGCU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +21 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -6.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -5.8 (+15.2) | 150.7 (-5.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.0 (+17.0) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -5.4 (+15.6) | 147.3 (-2.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -5.0 (+16.0) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APSU 82 – 71 FGCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APSU 73 – 60 FGCU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FGCU 73 – 67 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | FGCU 89 – 71 APSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | APSU 61 – 59 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | -3.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#154) | -1.14 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#167) | -1.12 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#145) | 0.451 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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