Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FGCU -120 APSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FGCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -0.1 (+6.1) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -1.3 (+4.7) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -0.1 (+5.9) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.3 (+6.3) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APSU 83 – 62 FGCU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | APSU 82 – 71 FGCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APSU 73 – 60 FGCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | FGCU 89 – 71 APSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | APSU 61 – 59 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#279) | -2.5 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#282) | -0.50 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#286) | -0.68 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#294) | 0.480 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FGCU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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