Betting Lines
| Spread | FGCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +195 FGCU -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FGCU -4.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FGCU -2.6 (+15.6) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -2.1 (+15.1) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FGCU -2.7 (+15.7) | 141.3 (-8.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FGCU -3.1 (+16.1) | 143.4 (-10.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APSU 83 – 62 FGCU |
| Jan 9, 2026 | APSU 82 – 71 FGCU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FGCU 73 – 67 APSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | FGCU 89 – 71 APSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | APSU 61 – 59 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#281) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#259) | 0.00 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#263) | -0.09 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#253) | 0.502 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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